One third of us will be Elvis impersonators by 2019, warn Migration Watch
Posted by freemovement on 13 November 2007
There was a great article in The Guardian yesterday (yes, of course I read The Guardian) about a possible upcoming shortage of Polish plumbers. It has been predicted that British householders will soon be moaning about having to use underskilled, overpriced native ‘workers’.
The serious point is that the immigration debate has often been overtaken by ridiculous trend analyses. The government’s claim to have reduced asylum figures needs to be seen in the context of steep falls across Europe, for example. Similarly, the upward immigration trends need to be seen in the context of:
1. The UK’s bold move to allow access to EU Accession State workers to our labour market, compared to the temporary restrictions imposed by other countries – which will have to be lifted soon.
2. A particularly strong period of growth in the UK economy, especially in the building and home improvements sectors.
3. Rapid growth but from a low base in Eastern European economies, where unemployment continues to fall.
Will Polish workers continue to want to live and work in the UK when they can soon live and work right across Europe, and can soon find well paid work back in Poland (thanks in part to EU development funds, admittedly)? Well, they aren’t exactly getting a warm welcome from the press here. They are the new bogeymen, having taken over from asylum seekers.
Lastly, what has this got to do with the title of the post? One fallacy the article points to is the use of snapshots of immigration trends. I’ve posted about this before. Migration Watch are particularly guilty of this and are either outright stupid or they are wilfully misleading. Consider this quote taken from The Naked Scientists:
‘The number of Elvies Presley impersonators has reached an all-time record high – there are now at least 85,000 Elvis’s around the world, compared to only 170 in 1957 when he died. At this rate of growth, experts predict that by 2019 Elvis impersonators will make up a third of the world population.’
Does anyone really think this will happen? No. Are the ‘facts’ correct? Yes.
Transylvania FC decimated « Free Movement said
[...] The serious lesson is not to wildly and irresponsibly extrapolate statistics on migration, something on which I have posted before, using the analogy of Elvis impersonators. [...]
freemovement said
Very good, SW, very good indeed.
Destiny said
Hi,
Here is an article in Telegraph that might intrest you ( Why are so many Britons emigrating?)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?view=BLOGDETAIL&grid=F11&blog=yourview&xml=/news/2007/11/15/view15.xml
simply wondered said
are there also polish experts in predicting the rate of increase in numbers of elvis impersonators – they’ll probably be cheaper than the domestic product and frankly every halfway decent elvis impersonator statistician in london is booked from now until 2011.
simply wondered said
why are all these polish elvises (elves?) over here anyway? well yit’s
1) for the money
2) for the show………..